US Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan: Stuck Between Rock and Hard Place

The New York Times reports that the US is likely to continue sending aid to Pakistan, despite Musharraf’s mini-coup in recent days, which not only resulted in the arrest of members of the opposition, but also of human rights activists.

 

The reason for the ongoing support is that the White House feels that Musharraf continues to be the best hope for US interests with regards to the War on Terrorism. If Musharraf is ousted, the Bush administration fears, it’ll become increasingly easy for Al Qaeda and the Taliban to regroup in Pakistan and to stage attacks, both against targets in the Middle East and against Western targets.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice explained that, although the US would “have to review the situation with aid,” Bush’s first concern is “to protect America and protect American citizens by continuing to fight against terrorists.” “That means we have to be very cognizant of the counterterrorism operations that we are involved in,” she said. Adding that the US has “to be very cognizant of the fact that some of the assistance that has been going to Pakistan is directly related to the counterterrorism mission.”

Musharraf and his advisers, meanwhile, appear to be quite confident. There’s little to no doubt in their minds about whether or not the US will continue to support Musharraf’s regime. One aide to the Pakistani president said that the US “would rather have a stable Pakistan — albeit with some restrictive norms — than have more democracy prone to fall in the hands of extremists,” which – like it or not – sounds logical.

The situation is incredibly difficult, the US is once again stuck between a rock and a hard place. Holding back support for Pakistan – thus not giving the country billions in aide – may very well result in a weaker Musharraf regime and, if that happens, a take-over by extremists. Extremists and nuclear weapons – since Pakistan is a nuclear power – are one dangerous combination.

On the other hand, although Musharraf is often referred to as an ally in the war against terrorism, the US and other countries have criticized his somewhat apathic approach: Al Qaeda and the Taliban have created a safe haven for themselves in Pakistan and are more often than not left alone by the regime. The US has to push Pakistan – time and again – into acting against the extremists who organize there, only to stage attacks against allied troops in Afghanistan. When Musharraf orders his army to go in, it does so grudgingly, too slowly and its military action is too short lived to truly be effective.

On the other hand, Musharraf is, at least, doing something. If other people take over, it might very well be that nothing will be done and that would create an even less stable Middle East and it would enable organizations like Al Qaeda and the Taliban to recruit more individuals for their cause.

So, what can be done? In my opinion not much. The only thing the US can hope for is that Musharraf will become a more serious ally in the War on Terrorism and that the crack down will be short lived. Allow Pakistan’s president to stabilize his country somewhat, but after that talk him into loosening his rule and accepting opposition once again.

More at Don Surber, the Huffington Post and Memeorandum.

Source:

Michael van der Galiën